Track Record
GFWS is an opportunity scanner, not an automated execution system. This record measures whether the market traded in the predicted direction after a signal was issued, within a timeframe-specific evaluation window.
The result does not represent an executed portfolio, trading profit, stop-loss performance, or guaranteed future outcome.
- Data period
- 1 September 2026 → 30 September 2026
- Last updated
- 4 October 2026
323 of 336 fully evaluated GFWS setup windows traded above their signal reference price at least once within the timeframe-specific evaluation window.
95% confidence interval: 93.49% – 97.73%
September 2026 monthly audit
Results by Timeframe
Each setup is evaluated using a window appropriate to the timeframe on which the signal was detected.
- Setups
- 116
- Correct so far
- 111 / 116(95.69%)
- Closed window rate
- 95.69%(111 / 116)
- Setups
- 172
- Correct so far
- 165 / 172(95.93%)
- Closed window rate
- 95.93%(165 / 172)
- Setups
- 63
- Correct so far
- 60 / 63(95.24%)
- Closed window rate
- 97.92%(47 / 48)
- Setups
- 21
- Correct so far
- 20 / 21(95.24%)
- Closed window rate
- Pending
No 90-day evaluation windows have closed yet.
The 1D row has no closed 90-day evaluation windows yet — the closed window rate is intentionally shown as Pending rather than 0%.
Results by Market
| Market | Setups | Closed Window Rate | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 146 | 96.92%(126 / 130) | 16 |
| Stocks | 73 | 98.57%(69 / 70) | 3 |
| Futures | 65 | 92.86%(52 / 56) | 9 |
| Commodities | 39 | 94.44%(34 / 36) | 3 |
| ETF | 32 | 96.67%(29 / 30) | 2 |
| Forex | 10 | 88.89%(8 / 9) | 1 |
| Indices | 7 | 100.00%(5 / 5) | 2 |
Published Monthly Audits
- September 2026 monthly auditLatest1 September 2026 → 30 September 202696.13%(323 / 336) · 372 setups · 36 pendingDownload audit
- August 2026 monthly audit1 August 2026 → 31 August 202692.89%(183 / 197) · 211 setups · 14 pendingDownload audit
- July 2026 incremental audit27 June 2026 → 31 July 202697.65%(83 / 85) · 98 setups · 12 pendingDownload audit
- Original beta audit2 May 2026 → 27 June 202692.76%(269 / 290) · 338 setups · 48 pendingDownload audit
Next scheduled publication: October 2026 monthly audit · 4 November 2026
How the Directional Reaction Methodology Works
A GFWS signal identifies a potentially significant market situation. It does not prescribe a fixed entry, exit, stop-loss, position size, or holding period.
For a LONG signal, a directional reaction is recorded when the market trades above the signal’s recorded reference price at least once after the signal was issued and before its timeframe-specific evaluation window expires.
- 1Exact signal timestamp
Only market movement after the recorded signal timestamp is evaluated.
- 2One continuing setup
Repeated alerts from the same continuing market situation are merged into one unique setup.
- 3First recorded reference price
The first eligible signal in the continuing setup establishes the reference price.
- 4Closed versus open windows
A setup is included in the Closed Window Rate only after its complete evaluation window has elapsed.
- 5Directional reaction, not executed profit
The metric measures whether the market reacted in the predicted direction. It does not calculate portfolio profit, transaction costs, slippage, stop-loss execution, or position sizing.
- 6PREDICTION and PREDICTION+
PREDICTION+ is a stricter confirmation layer. It must be recorded separately from the original PREDICTION reference price when sufficient data becomes available.
What 96.13% Means
Of the 336 setup windows that had fully elapsed by the audit date, 323 traded above their recorded LONG signal reference price at least once before their evaluation window expired.
What 96.13% Does Not Mean
It is not a simulated portfolio return, executed trade win rate, profit guarantee, recommendation to buy, or proof that every trader could capture the measured market reaction.
Download the Audit
Download the machine-readable audit containing the published summary, timeframe results, methodology, evaluation windows, and disclosure notes.
GFWS provides market analytics and identifies potentially relevant market situations. The Track Record measures historical directional market reactions after recorded signals. It does not represent executed trades, an investment portfolio, personalized financial advice, guaranteed profitability, or future performance.
Past market reactions do not guarantee future outcomes. Users remain responsible for their own analysis, timing, execution, position sizing, and risk management.